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HomeAbout the CouncilMarket Metrics InitiativePropane Demand Model

 

Propane Demand Forecasting Models

Historical database and near-term forecast of odorized propane demand.

  

Updated January 2011

 

New Propane Model Have Been Released. Click Links Below to Download.

 

Download

Propane Database Forecasting Model (PDFM)
Multi-sector data at the state level.

 

County Residential Propane Model (CRPM)
Residential data at the county level.

Forecast Graph

 

The propane demand models represent the work of ICF and the Market Metrics Initiative team toward developing a historical database of propane consumption and a near-term forecast of propane demand.  The models encapsulate much of the underlying analysis behind the Market Metrics Initiative, providing an improved understanding of the numerous factors that drive odorized propane demand.  This work supports the propane industry with both historical and forward-looking perspectives of the US odorized propane market, and the models are the analytical tools that can help inform business planning and assist in identifying marketing opportunities.  The models and associated analysis adds to a deeper knowledge base that contributes to a number of other projects, including improvements to the annual API Survey and an estimation of the impacts of marketing campaigns on propane consumption.

Propane Demand and Forecast Model (PDFM) version 6.4

January 2011

The state-level PDFM includes historical, estimated, and forecasted propane consumption and housing stocks for the years 1998-2015.  A number of end-use sectors are analyzed: residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial, portable cylinder, and internal combustion engine.  In addition, the residential and commercial-demand results are broken down into monthly units.

An important element of the PDFM is the Residential Housing Stock Module, providing more accurate and detailed housing and propane demand forecasts.  This module provides estimations of the total size of the U.S. housing market, propane competitive market share, and the propane share of the housing market.  Driving this module are trends in housing construction, market share of the propane competitive market, natural gas market penetration, and market share loss due to the wood market.

County Residential Propane Model (CRPM) version 3.2

July 2010

The CRPM delivers short-term projections of residential propane demand on a county-by-county basis.

  • Develop a residential sector propane demand forecast for any county or group of counties, within any state, based upon scenarios designed by the user.
  • Calculate propane use-per-customer in your service territory.
  • Estimate high and low demand potentials for propane during the upcoming winter.
  • Use the model year round, not just during the buildup to the heating season.  The model can help evaluate inventories and estimate potential future demand.
  • Utilize a redesigned user interface to select specific counties to model propane demand and identify sales opportunities and other threats in customized service territories.

Video Tutorials of the CRPM

Click to view videos
Learn to use the County Residential Propane Model with a series of short tutorials that demonstrate how to operate the model and utilize its capabilities.   These tutorials provide a clear and concise way to learn how to calculate propane demand in the specific counties that you are interested. 

 

About the Models 

They are Microsoft Excel-based applications you can run on your home or office computer.  They were developed in Excel 2003 and have been successfully tested on Excel 2007.  The models are updated on an ongoing basis and currently include extended demand forecasts through 2015.  They include the most recent economic and energy price data and an up-to-date residential propane housing stock database.

 

Use the models to:

  • Analyze propane market trends
  • Identify threats and opportunities on state and county level
  • Assist and inform strategic business decisions
  • Evaluate potential impact of propane usage trends and marketing programs on propane demand.
     

Model explicitly estimates impact of:

  • Weather
  • Fuel prices
  • Economic activity
  • Population and demographics
  • Competition with alternative fuel sources
  • Impact of efficiency trends
     

For further details help guide are provided with the models.

 

 

Questions or comments, contact: MMI@PropaneCouncil.org